Frankly, my investment / trading experience has not been too fruitful. Very clear flaw – inconsistencies across the strategies that have been employed. Emotions play a serious part as well.

To make matters worse, market has been volatile. FBMKLCI certainly looks like it is on a downtrend . If it breaches the 1,572 level, all hell break loose?

FBMKLCI - 26082019.png

Honestly, I feel that there will be a recession in the next 18 months, which could be serious threat for the equity capital markets. 3 defensive sectors usually do well during a recession – utilities, consumer staples and healthcare. Moreover I intend to focus more on bond / gold funds (i.e no more additional funds shall be allocated to equity). Any short term trading in equity will be opportunistic.

Further – I intend to keep things simple with the TA analysis (i.e removing a number of indicators). Employing the following strategies

  1. Trend following-pullback-breakout method
  2. MAs and Support / Resistance
  3. MACD / ADX
  4. Screening for top volume / top gainers / certain fundamental stocks

Using this new and simpler approach, one particular stock that I am closely watching is Duopharma Biotech. It may have a potential uptrend. Waiting for pullback for possible entry (possible SL at RM1.28).

DPHARMA 26082019.png

Quick-and-dirty valuation of Duopharma shows indicative intrinsic value about RM1.65 per share vs RM1.45 (current share price).

DPHARMA 26082019 2.png

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