FBMKLCI has recorded the worst performing month of March since 2008 (a m-o-m decline of 3.75%).

Seasonality - FBMKLCI.png

Historically, there were positive rebounds in the month of April following declines in March (e.g 2008, 2009). Based on the above seasonality chart and given a decline has been recorded in March, we may (?) anticipate a positive monthly movement for the KLCI in the month of April.

Nevertheless, the FBMKLCI looks relatively weak from a technical standpoint. It is currently trending below the MAs.

FBMKLCI_TA.png

Perhaps, the bearish trend may continue for the large caps (possibly due to outflow of foreign funds). On the other hand, the mid caps are well-supported at above its MAs. We may possibly see re-allocation funds from large caps to mid caps.

FBM_midcaps.png

BM Finance index appears to form a “double top”, which may possibly spell near term weakness for the finance sector. The index has also been trending below its MAs.

FBM_finance.png

All three indices – BM Consumer, BM Plantation and BM Property seem to be showing possible formation of “bear flags”:

FBM_ConsumerFBM_PlantationFBM_Property

On the contrary, we are seeing some positive momentum from the Construction Sector of which the BM Construction index has been holding up above its MAs:

FBM_Construction.png

Two particular stock counters catch my attention (due to its possible developing positive momentum) – Symphony Life & V.S Industry. 

Next possible resistance point for Symphony Life – RM0.47

Symphony Life

Next possible resistance point for V.S Industry – RM1.17

VS Industry

In a nutshell:

  • FBMKLCI remains bearish
  • Pockets of rebound opportunities are available in the mid caps
  • No clear positive momentum seen in Finance / Consumer / Plantation / Property sectors
  • Positive momentum developing in the Construction sector
  • Personal picks – Symphony Life & V.S Industry

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