Let us explore a simple scenario analysis of Malaysia’s FBMKLCI index based on three (3) different scenarios:
- All index stocks fall to their 52-week low (Scenario 1)
- 10% fall in earnings of all index stocks (Scenario 2)
- 10% fall in NAV of financial & oil / gas stocks (Scenario 3)
Based on the above parameters, our high-level desktop analysis shows that the FBMKLCI index may potentially fall to
- Scenario 1 : 1,492
- Scenario 2: 1,483
- Scenario 3: 1,606
This simple desktop analysis presumes that there is no change in trading multiples of the index stocks. Some adjustments need to be incorporated for SKPetro due to its trailing 12-month financial loss.
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