Let’s take a quick look at the Oil & Gas sector for the month of August 2016.
Brent vs USD Index
Brent is generally negatively correlated with the movement in the USD Index. Based on a regression analysis, the forecasted value of brent is USD51.14 vs actual of USD49.20, with a 95%-confidence between USD33.47-USD68.81. The USD Index is expected to perform better, in line with potential US rate hike. Read more
Oil & Gas Companies in Malaysia : Market Capitalisation
Significant drop in market capitalisation across most O&G companies listed on Bursa Malaysia, except for Dialog and Yinson. Malaysia’s biggest O&G company by market cap, i.e SKPetro suffered a significant drop in its market cap.
Oil & Gas Companies vs FBMKLCI : Market Capitalisation
Market cap of O&G companies listed on Bursa has fallen relatively more than the market cap of KLCI. Based on regression analysis between the market cap of O&G companies and KLCI, the forecasted market cap for O&G companies is expected to be RM48.9b vs actual RM34.8b, with a 95%-confidence interval between RM31.5b and RM66.4b.
SKPetro vs Oil & Gas Companies (excl. SKPetro) : Market Capitalisation
The regression between market cap of SKPetro and other Oil & Gas companies shows the current market cap of SKPetro is slightly below the forecasted value. No significant divergence between actual and forecast value.
Oil & Gas Companies (Market Cap) vs Brent
There appears to be a significant divergence between the forecasted and actual value of current market cap of Oil & Gas companies listed in Malaysia. The actual market cap of these companies is significantly lower than as per the regression analysis.
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